Insight from the Prince & Prince

U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey     

                                                                       FloralMarketResearch.com

          Release Date: Feb. 3^rd, 2023

Prince & Prince Forecast $3.6 Billion Dollars in U.S. Consumer Floral 

Purchasing for Valentine’s Day 2023

           Special Note:  This Prince & Prince (P&P) floral market report utilizes the latest U.S. household projections from the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University.  JCHS utilizes Census data and makes periodic adjustments for factors that affect household formation (McCue, 2023). 

          Come Tuesday, February 14^th, 2023, lovers, couples, partners, and best friends throughout the U.S. and around the world will be expressing their sincere feelings of love, affection, and happiness with one another on Valentine’s Day.   And what better way to express those human feelings than with flowers.   Prince & Prince, Inc. (P&P), a leader in market research focused on the floral and green plant industries, has released a projection for the number of U.S. households that will make floral purchases for Valentine’s Day 2023, and an estimate of the retail value of those romantic floral purchases.   On this day, nearly 54 million U.S. households (53.6 million) will have made one or more fresh floral purchases to celebrate Valentine’s Day with significant people in their lives, in or out of the household. 

The P&P U.S. household aggregate spending projection on all floral products for Valentine’s Day 2023 is over $3.6 billion dollars at retail ($3.62 billion).  This value includes all fresh floral products including fresh cut flowers (largely roses), arrangements, bouquets, bunches, single stems, and corsages, and also indoor potted flowering and foliage plants & planters, and any associated delivery/ service fees.  This projected market value for Valentine’s Day 2023 is higher than any previous Valentine’s Day market projection by P&P largely due to recently revised U.S. household estimates by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University (McCue, 2023), a relatively high incidence of purchase projection for Valentine’s Day, and generally higher retail prices due to recent inflationary pressures.  Over the past few years, there has been a surge in the growth of households in the U.S. driven by a sharp turnaround in growth among younger households (See Figure 1). 

Figure 1.  The Recent Surge in Household Growth Has Been Driven By A Sharp Turnaround in Growth

By Younger  Households

Prior JCHS projections (2011 to 2016) had household growth pegged at around 1.2 million additional households annually.  Now, the latest updates (2016 to 2021) peg that annual growth rate at around 2.2 million households, an additional annual growth of 1 million households, largely among those under the age of 45.   And since floral-buying households under the age of 45 have a slightly higher “Incidence of Floral Purchase” for Valentine’s Day compared to older-aged households (53% vs. 47%; Prince & Prince, 2020), the floral market value projection for Valentine’s Day expands considerably.  The growth effect is synergistic, as the consumer segment that is expanding also has a higher predilection to purchase floral for Valentine’s Day.  

According to P&P market survey estimates, Valentine’s Day is still the second largest "floral holiday" for the U.S. floral industry, in terms of consumer dollar spending on floral products, with floral spending second only to Mother’s Day.   P&P’s 2022 Mother’s Day floral market projection was over $5 billion (Prince & Prince, 2022).   P&P also project that each floral-purchasing household, on average, will spend about $67 on floral products for Valentine’s Day 2023, including all household members that make a floral purchase, with associated delivery/ service fees included.  

A pending recession in the U.S. economy was not factored into our Valentine’s Day forecast for 2023.   Although many economists and bank CEO’s (e.g. Jamie Dimon and others) have been “wringing their hands” in despair as they forecast an upcoming bad recession (since the Fall of 2022), we at P&P believe that if a recession does occur in 2023, it will be late, and mild, if at all in 2023.   These doomsayers fail to interpret the data trends right before their eyes; falling inflation, low unemployment, somewhat higher wages, and as this article is written, breaking news reports that the U.S. economy added 517,000 new jobs in January 2023, almost triple market expectations.  One does not get that size of job growth just prior to a recession.  At P&P, we ignore the “market noise” and stand behind our somewhat bullish Valentine’s Day market projection.

About the P&P U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey

The P&P floral survey identifies the types of consumers who buy fresh floral products, what they buy, where they buy, when they buy, why they buy, & how much they spend on fresh cut flowers & indoor potted flowering/ foliage plants.   The 1,000+ respondent survey also provides a comprehensive evaluation of the many businesses (and web sites) that market floral products through a 30-attrribute consumer rating of floral businesses.   P&P has been tracking U.S. consumer floral purchasing behavior for Valentine’s Day, and floral purchasing for more than 20 holidays, events, and occasions over the past three decades with their periodic surveys of floral-buying households nationwide (Prince & Prince, 2020).  The survey employs both a random-selection of U.S. households via a mail-based survey with monetary incentives, and a random selection of U.S. households through an Internet-based survey panel.   This “mixed-mode” survey methodology has been shown to greatly improve the quality and representation of survey results (Dillman et al., 2014).

P&P plans to commence a 2023 tracking survey of consumer floral-buying households later this Summer.   Please contact P&P if your company has interest in becoming a P&P Research Sponsor.   Research Sponsors receive the complete floral tracking survey results (current and historical trends) thru a one-day, on-site seminar with Q&A, and the complete 800+ slide presentation on a flash drive.   Sponsors also receive exclusivity of the floral market information for a one-year period following the completion of the consumer research.   Interested parties should contact P&P for research sponsorship opportunities: 614-264-0939, or email Tom at 2640939@gmail.com

Literature Cited

  Dillman, D.A., Smyth, J.D. and Christian, L.M. (2014). Internet, Phone, Mail, and Mixed-Mode Surveys (Fourth Edition).   Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

 McCue, D. (2023).  The Surge in Household Growth and What It Suggests About the Future of Housing Demand.  Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.

 Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2022).  Historical Consumer Floral Purchasing Trends for Mother’s Day: An Age Group Perspective.  (P&P Market Report).  Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.

 Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2020). The 2019 Prince & Prince U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey  (On-Site Seminar with Q&A).  Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.

Prince & Prince, Inc.  PO Box 2465,  Columbus, OH  43216-2465   

  Mobile: 614-264-0939    E-mail: 2640939@gmail.com

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